What qualities would a genuine threat to Ceres have? I would say it would need to be some form of trade embargo.
That has possibilities. Surely UW can tell whenever a shuttle leaves Terra. Surely they can inspect all the scheduled shuttles and blow up any unscheduled ones.
But what does Ceres need that they can't make for themselves? Surely not machine parts. They would have automatic milling machines etc that make whatever shape you want, just provide the program and it cranks them out. Whatever they import is just easier to buy than to make themselves, but do an embargo and they will make what they need. Probably starting with making extra automatic milling machines to handle the extra production. Maybe the programs for lots of parts are not available? Trade secrets on Terra? So you get skilled people trying to back-engineer the most important ones. Maybe people on Terra who send programs by tanglenet, who sympathise with the Belt and maybe want to emigrate after the embargo is over....
Maybe some elements are in short supply? Perhaps light elements have tended to get blown off or something, back when things were more fluid and fractionating. Potassium, nitrogen, carbon, lithium, beryllium, things that are needed in small amounts for alloys and such, and needed as trace elements for human diets. Presumably there would be enough for current needs but hard to expand until you get more. Not a great embargo but something.
I can imagine that Terra might be more dependent on the Belt than the other way round. But there could be some sort of hook there the UW could use.
Or how about an actual military invasion instead of retards herping and derping.
Presumably the current plot involves creating a provocation to justify an actual military invasion.
The whole "big warship being defeated by a mining shuttle" thing was total bullshit and shows amazing ignorance on the authors part. A ship like that would never be on its own. It would have a metric shit ton of escort ships tagging along to protect it from exactly that sort of threat. Read a bit about naval history.
This was unprecedented, right? I haven't noticed any previous interplanetary war in the EFT universe. And they thought the Belters were unarmed.
First they sent a bureaucrat to tell the Belters to pay their taxes. They presumably expected Belters would just tighten their belts and pay up.
Then they sent an intimidating force, led by a giant warship. (Why did they even have a giant warship when they had no one to fight space battles with?) The giant warship was supposed to be intimidating. But the Belters were not intimidated enough to surrender, and the giant warship could do no more than bombard some stuff hoping to intimidate better. (Compare Admiral Perry shelling Japanese ports to make them trade with us.) They hadn't really expected Belters to fight still, they expected them to be impressed and knuckle under.
Now they are getting ready for a bigger war. It didn't cost much to send a few ships on a routine mission to tour the Belt. There would have been no need to even mention it to the public if they had succeeded and made it back safely. But for a bigger war that they expect ahead of time will involve actual shooting and Marines and such, it would be traditional to have a provocation first.
I don't see much reason to complain about this. It could be following a pattern, not just random bozos who fail.
The basics of the Xanatos gambit are simple enough that even a child can grasp them. For someone with half a brain in a position of power or of resource could easily implement such a thing. All it takes is power or resources and you can pull such a feat off provided you are not a total retard.
If it's so easy, why doesn't everybody who has power or resources do it all the time?
Would be interesting to see if the author was capable of questioning his own ideology enough to actually give a character ideologically opposed to him a win.
I guess that would be interesting. Maybe we could get Tom Clancy to write a novel where Russia or arab terrorists or somebody utterly defeat the US military and take over the USA.
Maybe we could get Tim LaHaye to write one where the Devil kills God and takes over Heaven, and rebuilds the earth as an atheist communist paradise.
Maybe we could get a collection of mystery writers to each write one where the smarter murderer not only gets away with it but manages to pin it on their series detective who is sentenced to a long prison term, perhaps on Death Row.
Maybe a series like Harry Potter where at the end Harry dies and Voldemort takes over the world.
The possibilities are endless! You're really onto something here.