Extended stay...

Hmmm, the Boss Man is about to sent Guy back to Ceres as a form of punishment.  Not smart.  Not smart at all.  If I were in that man's position, I would sent in a large team of my most hard-nosed agents, coupled by calling in some favors in other branches of government.  I would escalate my pressure on Ceres, not re-use a "fool" that failed to do the job.  Granted, he's going to be doing more than just send Guy back in for another round, but personally I would never let Guy out of the office again.  In fact I'd be tempted to fire him.

Again, that's what I would do... were I a meglo-maniacal, powerful government agent like him.  But since I'm not, it's a moot point.

By telling Guy to prepare for an extended stay, that gives Guy 2-3 days to put his affairs in order on Terra.  You know, things like sending private letters to his family and friends informing them that he doesn't expect to ever come back.   The Boss Man is essentially giving Guy a "get out of jail" card, should Guy choose to use it as such.

Guy may honestly attempt to finish the job he was supposed to do, and will go in with all the gusto he can muster.  But it won't last, IMO.  He's probably re-evaluating things left and right, and I predict he'll eventually defect to Ceres.

It's also possible that Guy's department head could eventually join the Ceres exodus, too.  She's probably a bit rattled at the Boss Man's words right now, and may be looking for an escape route.  Perhaps she'll go to Ceres as well, ostensibly to keep an eye on foolish little agent Caillard.

Just some speculations on this Tuesday morning. 

Hmmm, the Boss Man is about to sent Guy back to Ceres as a form of punishment.  Not smart.  Not smart at all.  If I were in that man's position, I would sent in a large team of my most hard-nosed agents, coupled by calling in some favors in other branches of government.  I would escalate my pressure on Ceres, not re-use a "fool" that failed to do the job.  Granted, he's going to be doing more than just send Guy back in for another round, but personally I would never let Guy out of the office again.  In fact I'd be tempted to fire him.

Again, that's what I would do... were I a meglo-maniacal, powerful government agent like him.  But since I'm not, it's a moot point.

By telling Guy to prepare for an extended stay, that gives Guy 2-3 days to put his affairs in order on Terra.  You know, things like sending private letters to his family and friends informing them that he doesn't expect to ever come back.   The Boss Man is essentially giving Guy a "get out of jail" card, should Guy choose to use it as such.

Guy may honestly attempt to finish the job he was supposed to do, and will go in with all the gusto he can muster.  But it won't last, IMO.  He's probably re-evaluating things left and right, and I predict he'll eventually defect to Ceres.

It's also possible that Guy's department head could eventually join the Ceres exodus, too.  She's probably a bit rattled at the Boss Man's words right now, and may be looking for an escape route.  Perhaps she'll go to Ceres as well, ostensibly to keep an eye on foolish little agent Caillard.

Just some speculations on this Tuesday morning. 

Nice speculation on a Tuesday morning, but you don't seem to have taking into account that Guy will be returning with the signed "Treaty of Mutual Indifference"...

Nice speculation on a Tuesday morning, but you don't seem to have taking into account that Guy will be returning with the signed "Treaty of Mutual Indifference"...

Yes, I had overlooked that.  My bad.  Two possible theories...  (come on, you knew I would have some...)

1.) The UWRS is signing the treaty as a time purchase.  They plan to try another tactic on Ceres, but need time to put it together.  In the mean time, they send Guy to Ceres to keep an eye on things, and perhaps give him a list of possible loopholes to search for in the Ceres financial system.  Guy will "redeem" himself by playing the bloodhound.  They need to find that C100 billion somewhere, and I can't see them giving up on Cerest just yet.

2.) The UWRS is sending Guy to Ceres on a one-way ticket.  In short, Guy's employment will be terminated the moment he hands over that treaty.  The UWRS will then start looking for their C100b elsewhere.  They may come calling on Ceres again later, but not until they've looked at other, less "head strong" enclaves.

Nice speculation on a Tuesday morning, but you don't seem to have taking into account that Guy will be returning with the signed "Treaty of Mutual Indifference"...

Yes, I had overlooked that.  My bad.  Two possible theories...  (come on, you knew I would have some...)

1.) The UWRS is signing the treaty as a time purchase.  They plan to try another tactic on Ceres, but need time to put it together.  In the mean time, they send Guy to Ceres to keep an eye on things, and perhaps give him a list of possible loopholes to search for in the Ceres financial system.  Guy will "redeem" himself by playing the bloodhound.  They need to find that C100 billion somewhere, and I can't see them giving up on Cerest just yet.

2.) The UWRS is sending Guy to Ceres on a one-way ticket.  In short, Guy's employment will be terminated the moment he hands over that treaty.  The UWRS will then start looking for their C100b elsewhere.  They may come calling on Ceres again later, but not until they've looked at other, less "head strong" enclaves.

Very good. Now let's see what happens.

I think that cyberbard is right that the head supervisor is using the treaty of mutual indifference to buy time.  This "Arthur Harris" unless I miss my guess is some kind of troubleshooter for the UW and is called in when someone messes with the UW and needs dealing with.  Probably what would be considered a hired killer under very "permanent" contract for the UW.  Guy is in serious trouble, either that or King Reggie is.   

This "Arthur Harris" unless I miss my guess is some kind of troubleshooter for the UW and is called in when someone messes with the UW and needs dealing with.  Probably what would be considered a hired killer under very "permanent" contract for the UW.  Guy is in serious trouble, either that or King Reggie is.   

Harris is a "cleaner?"  A specialty "problem solver?"  OH, that could be dangerous.

If someone is in trouble, I'm guessing it's Reggie.  Guy isn't worth that kind of trouble, at least not at the moment; there's no point shooting the messenger, et cetera.  If Harris is an assassin of some sort, though, then Ceres is in real trouble.  Ceres is expecting retribution from Terra, but they seem to be expecting a frontal confrontation.  Not a single operative running around taking out specific individuals from deep cover.  Sometimes a single, skilled commando is more effective than an entire division of soldiers.

One thing you're forgetting about such things as treaties like that.  Sometimes it's worse to have a legal status, however ridiculous, than to be in limbo.  When they were in limbo, there was no official government to declare war against.  No rules of engagement.  A treaty of mutual indifference requires the two sides to be relatively at peace.  If they can claim that the belters have caused some flimsy bit of economic harm, imagined or otherwise, to Terra it can serve as a basis for demanding damages or act as the foundation for a declaration of war.  As Monarch by the document, Reggie is effectively liable and non-payment of the damages would be grounds for a war even if the supposed harm doesn't merit.  Just because Reggie's kingdom evaporates in a puff at the least scrutiny doesn't mean it's not legal and binding because of that treaty.  And the UW is unlikely to listen to the fallback that he had no authority to participate in treaty-making, if it gives them grounds to raid the belt for anything they can grab.

In short, so long as it was just individual transactions there was no grounds for a declaration of war or any other such government stupidity.  The treaty establishes a legal foundation for almost any act the UW can conceive of, and I'm beginning to have a facepalm moment at how badly such a maneuver can backfire.

It looks as though you guys are getting into the groove. Again, let's see what happens. You might be surprised... or not.

In short, so long as it was just individual transactions there was no grounds for a declaration of war or any other such government stupidity.  The treaty establishes a legal foundation for almost any act the UW can conceive of, and I'm beginning to have a facepalm moment at how badly such a maneuver can backfire.

In other words, without realizing it, Reggie has seriously fu*ked up!

 

But... pretty soon Guy will be there to help Reggie navigate this upcoming storm.  Should Reggie ask, and should Guy accept.  Quite a bit of irony there, says I.

Harris is a "cleaner?"  A specialty "problem solver?"  OH, that could be dangerous.

If someone is in trouble, I'm guessing it's Reggie.  Guy isn't worth that kind of trouble, at least not at the moment; there's no point shooting the messenger, et cetera. 

Cyberbard:  Your missing the second half of why to send Guy back to the "colonies".  When someone gets murdered it always helps the real murderer to have an innocent person to serve as a patsy.

Oh, I don't blame reggie for trying to find a way to get it in writing from the UW that they'd leave the belt alone.  It's a nice thought.  But the UWRS, if it's anything like the modern gov, knows about as much about keeping contracts with anyone who can't have them shipped for sausage manufacture as Geedubya knows about sobriety.  "You...  You mean you can be not fucked up?" 

Besides, it may not end up as a total miscalculation on Reggie's part.  I just can't see the UWRS signing the gaffy parchment if it wasn't something that furthered their ends.  And that's kinda what I figure it does when it sets up the legal foundation for treating with the Belt as if they are governed.

And the UW is unlikely to prosecute Mister Harris if he's a real hitman.  But I also doubt he is.  Assuming they've bought the King Reginald act, killing him doesn't get them their tax money.  Intimidating him, theoretically might.  However, there is a work out there that might apply here.  Ever heard of "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"?

The irony is the UWRS wants Continentals.  The Belters really and truly mostly don't have them.  They'd have to snag the commodities being traded, sell for Continentals, and then use those.  Which, given the sheer number of them they want, would crash those commodities on Terra and result in widespread deflation (massive demand for Continentals, massive supply of gold, carbon, etc. means price of continentals goes up, price of those commodities goes down).  Which means they'd be stepping on those toes anyway, plus crashing the economy anyway, rendering their plunder moot because it'd be the last they're gonna get for awhile and no new economy would be generated because of their stupid policies. 

Their best move is actually to print the bills they need, inflate the Continental a bit, and prolong the inevitable for awhile.  Nobody in their right mind would loan it to them, since they'd basically end up getting it stolen from them to get the return.  "Lemme borrow $10 from you, I'll pay you back $15 in a week." Five days later, "I've got a gun, pay me twenty or I kill you." Two days later, "Here's the fifteen I owe you."  Aint nobody left to redistribute it to them from in the EfT timeline.

And the UW is unlikely to prosecute Mister Harris if he's a real hitman.

Hmm, I wonder why that name rings a bell...

The thought has occurred to me that since there is no such thing in reality as a "monarchy" on Ceres that although the UW has signed it, it is really a worthless piece of paper.  Okay then, even more worthless than the UW realizes that it is, since the UW has no intention of keeping their word on the document and since "King" Reggie legally didn't have the right to sign any treaty that effected anyone else on Ceres other than himself.  When the UW figure out that the document is worthless it will probably mean that it would have been better for both sides if it had never been signed at all.   

I ended up finding two possible sources for the name.  One was a sheriff in Essex, England.  A pirate-hunter pretty much.  The other was "Butcher" Harris.  A bloodthirsty bastard in WWII who actually diverted resources from military targets in order to slaughter German civilians.  I read one spot that when Dresden I think it was turned into a cyclone from the flames of the firebombing, he started trying to re-create that in other cities.  He was not interested, at all, in sticking to targets that were going to be hitting his troops or country.  He wanted to kill as many as possible.  He has a statue devoted to him now.  I hope it's vandalized regularly.

On a lighter note, assuming Reggie lets his guard down now that he thinks he has a piece of paper declaring the Belt out of bounds to UWRS, Guy is about to have his world turned upside-down methinks.  He's trying to bow to Reggie.  Bowing and scraping like some sycophant...  To a preacher of a deliciously irreverant by modern standards church, informal arbitrator, general businessman, and star of off-off-off-off broadway stage

...assuming Reggie lets his guard down now that he thinks he has a piece of paper declaring the Belt out of bounds to UWRS...

Bite your tongue! Reggie is smarter than both of us put together. The Treaty cost nothing and might help. Of course, we are playing the odds here. Just because something is a good bet, or even the best bet, doesn't mean it is guaranteed to win.