sams on February 03, 2011, 03:46:32 am
I left EFT two months ago because the old people love wasn't interesting, but the present arc is promising, since it will respond to the ''What AnCap do is Vampires disembark on Ceres'' ... but boat loads of UW troops are desembarking on Ceres ;D

This present Ceres with a fait accomplis ... this was a great UW cover up or someone should have suspect it

Great idea Scott and Biesser

SandySandfort on February 03, 2011, 07:34:24 am
I left EFT two months ago because the old people love wasn't interesting, but the present arc is promising, since it will respond to the ''What AnCap do is Vampires disembark on Ceres'' ... but boat loads of UW troops are desembarking on Ceres ;D

This present Ceres with a fait accomplis ... this was a great UW cover up or someone should have suspect it

Great idea Scott and Biesser

Thanks. BTW, that would be Sandy and Scott...

Scott on February 03, 2011, 11:00:22 am
Quote
left EFT two months ago because the old people love wasn't interesting

You can't please everybody. However, the "old people love" arc will return in a few weeks and get more interesting. Patience is not only its own reward.

macsnafu on February 03, 2011, 12:23:38 pm
Don't forget: the old often becomes new again (or in this case, young again)...
I love mankind.  It's PEOPLE I can't stand!  - Linus Van Pelt.

ZeissIkon on February 03, 2011, 02:44:37 pm
Going back to the beginning of "The Christmas War" -- did I read correctly that the Coal Mine Canaries bought the entire hotel -- as opposed to renting rooms?  I guess we know where the new barracks is going to be...   :P

GlennWatson on February 03, 2011, 04:58:31 pm
I agree.  This new turn of events is very exciting.  I can't wait to see what happens.

I am curious as to how a trained army will fare against an armed populous like Ceres.

That has always seemed to me to be the one possible weakness of an ancap society.  Such a freewheeling culture, that lacks a top down command structure, might be vulnerable to better organized more aggressive outsiders.  We know little about Ceres’ military might but they don’t seem to have an army.

This reminds me of "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress."  I read it along time ago but when the Moon declared independence from Earth the Earth objected and used force.  The Moon had no army or weapons so they simply dropped a large rock on Earth from orbit as a warning.  The effect was like a nuclear bomb without the radiation.

Earth capitulated pretty quick.  I guess Ceres could do that same thing.

Brugle on February 03, 2011, 07:02:39 pm
I am curious as to how a trained army will fare against an armed populous like Ceres.

That has always seemed to me to be the one possible weakness of an ancap society.  Such a freewheeling culture, that lacks a top down command structure, might be vulnerable to better organized more aggressive outsiders.  We know little about Ceres’ military might but they don’t seem to have an army.
I enjoyed reading your question.  Too often, we hear questions like "What would an armed populous of a few thousand people with 19th century technology do against an attack by a million-man army equipped with nuclear weapons and dinosaurs?"

I don't know much about military matters, so I'll just mention a few generalities.  Top-down command is not necessarily a better organization (military or otherwise) than decentralization.  Each has strengths and weaknesses.

I assume that in the EFT universe, Earth's governments are similar to ours.  In particular, there will be government schools whose primary purpose is turning intelligent children into obedient citizens.  Without government schools, most people of Ceres will be better educated (and have much better critical thinking skills) than most people of Earth.  The government schools (if effective) should make the soldiers willing to die for the state, but the people of Ceres will be defending their homes and loved ones, which should compensate.  And there are advantages to being defenders with a detailed knowledge of the "terrain".

The Earth troops probably have significant military experience.  (Giving the bad guys at least one advantage makes a better story.)

Of course, this assumes that there will be a military battle.  We'll see.

This reminds me of "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress."  I read it along time ago but when the Moon declared independence from Earth the Earth objected and used force.  The Moon had no army or weapons so they simply dropped a large rock on Earth from orbit as a warning.  The effect was like a nuclear bomb without the radiation.

Earth capitulated pretty quick.  I guess Ceres could do that same thing.
There were many rocks (a significant fraction of them hitting the Earth before the major attack on the Moon), and Earth's capitulation occurred only after some political maneuvering (and plenty of suspense), but close enough.  Great fun (to read).

wdg3rd on February 03, 2011, 07:51:15 pm

Earth capitulated pretty quick.  I guess Ceres could do that same thing.


Remember that there's no one on Ceres who can surrender for everyone else.
Ward Griffiths        wdg3rd@aol.com

Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest.  --  Denis Diderot

J Thomas on February 03, 2011, 09:23:22 pm

I am curious as to how a trained army will fare against an armed populous like Ceres.

That has always seemed to me to be the one possible weakness of an ancap society.  Such a freewheeling culture, that lacks a top down command structure, might be vulnerable to better organized more aggressive outsiders.  We know little about Ceres’ military might but they don’t seem to have an army.

If Ceres doesn't have an army, what can a trained army do but stage an occupation?

If the AnCaps weren't very violent, I could easily imagine an occupation crumble. First they try to disarm the people, and a lot of the people they try to disarm shoot as many soldiers as they can before they are shot themselves. But the armed AnCaps don't cause much trouble. So the occupiers quickly decide not to disarm the public after all. Then some entrepreneurs point out that they can provide various supplies cheaper than the army can import them from Terra. Soon the army is dependent on the AnCap economy for their necessities.

Meanwhile, various guards etc keep getting opportunities to accept bribes from wealthy citizens who just want to do harmless things that involve getting past the guards. Quickly they find they make considerably more money from the bribes than from their military pay. Since there isn't much violence, soldiers are allowed leave time locally. Their pay doesn't go very far, but they can easily make enough money working for a day in AnCap society to provide a pretty good time. They see they could make far more money working for AnCaps than they could on Terra.

Terra wants revenue to pay for the occupation, but there's nobody collecting revenue. They try to take it off the most prosperous businesses. The businesses try to bribe the auditors.

Some soldiers go AWOL and the occupation army tries to catch them. They find it's much cheaper and more effective to pay professional skip-tracers to catch them. But then the skip-tracers get sued. "You gave my boyfriend to the army and he was paying half the rent!" The army finds that to keep the skip-tracers working they must allow arbitration.

"You signed a contract that you would be a soldier and then you walked out. Was that ethical?"
"They made me do it."
"Oh, that's different." Arbitrators tend to rule that it's OK to hunt down volunteers but not draftees.

I can imagine the whole thing slowly unraveling. The occupation does not produce a profit. It's hard to explain what good they are doing. AnCaps keep explaining to them that they aren't doing any good and keep suggesting better ways to achieve their stated goals. The AWOL rate keeps going up, and soldiers who get captured tell the MPs how much money they were making. Should desertion really be a capital offense when it isn't really a war zone and the whole exercise looks pointless?

They need to stir up fights with AnCaps to keep their morale up. If they can do that maybe they can hold out for a significant time. Convince enough AnCaps that they are cold-blooded baby-killers and maybe the jobs won't come through etc. But unless they can keep themselves from getting accepted by AnCap society, they will be assimilated as sure as the Borg.

terry_freeman on February 03, 2011, 11:08:46 pm
I have to make a spelling correction: the word you want in this context is "populace".

"Populous" is not a noun; it is an adjective.

Examples:

Los Angeles is a very populous city. ( It has a large population )

Los Angeles discourages private firearm use ( CCWs are almost impossible to obtain), and does not have an armed populace, but Pittsburgh does.

quadibloc on February 04, 2011, 12:35:42 am
It certainly got off to an interesting start with a rather large understatement...

but then, apparently the armed infantry is not planning to immediately go around and try to massacre an armed citizenry. I suppose intimidation may be their goal.

spudit on February 04, 2011, 03:05:44 am
Don't mistake potential order for no order at all.

We see spontaneous order all the time. If an asteroid quake happened and they lost pressure containment, a suitable organization would materialize, disease another, invasion by already somewhat low G acclimated troops from Luna, another.

Been a while for me too, as i recall there were 2 "infantry battles" in Mistress. One was against the Warden's security and Peace Dragoons, like UN peace keepers, as the revolution ramped up. It was a long slow escalation as they tried to control the uncontrollable who were not impressed. Then later there was massive street fighting in the warrens when real troops landed straight from Earth unacclimated and got creamed.

Maybe not Mistress at all, ever read Hogan's Voyage From Yesteryear? 

But, but, these guys with rifles, what if they are not what they appear to be? I suppose they are but what if they are deserters, maybe going into business as mercenaries. Did someone hire them somehow? Are they just passing through?

If there is fighting it'll be that nasty house to house type and I suspect short ranged personal scale weapons will do just fine. Or Carlos can provide artillery support with that monster hog leg.

Good observation about critical thinking as a weapon.

Danged polite invaders.

Vote Early and Vote Often
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Big.Swede on February 04, 2011, 03:38:23 am
Hmmm. Iīm thinking this might even be more subtle than what you see at first glance. Not your average "occupation" attempt as it were. If it is, someone at HQ is so stupid itīs painfull.

Iīm making the rest of the post in difficult to read colours intentionaly. It might contain spoilers with my musings and ideas, and i canīt find any "spoilers" button in the messages setting. You feel like reading them, just highlight and read. Ainīt i a considerate guy? :)

My theory is that they are there to do a 'peacfull' coup so to speak. Set up as a large "Merc Security" and offer guards at a discount. Get to be part of the background, and slowly get to be both the local "police" and even offer arbitration. Iīm predicting an increase in minor crimes to drive up the interest for this new service, and thinking of it, that story arc with the mugger might have been a first dry run to see what kind of reaction to a string of crimes would be. It turned out to be a single guy with an interest. As for the "mine birds", they were first trying something similar, but it obviously didnīt work out as planned. So, plan B.

Then ever so slowly induce more and more Terra stuff, like an official claim agency, expertly backed by formerly mentioned police, and so on and so forth. And eventualy eventualy everyone is standing there going "Ok, how did this happen?" when someday years down the line normal Terran laws are suddenly a fact. Unlikely to work, yes. But still far more subtle and reasonable than a military occupation. That saying about the frog and the boiling water, if you know what i mean.

That is at least how i (if i wanted/had/whatever to) would try and "destabilize" an AnCap area.. or would that be "stabilize".... Ok, now iīm confusing myself even.   ;D

On the other hand, this is EFT so there might well be a some drooling incompetent in charge of this and itīs just an ocupation attempt, which will fail horrificly for a number of glaringly obvious reasons, two of which i can spot in an instant.

Preparations: Showing up an assload of troops like this is sure to set everyone on edge and start prepping for an eventual siege/occupation. So when it finaly starts they will not only be going up against an armed society, but one that has had days, weeks, months? to prepare. Basicly having to fight a guerilla warfare against superior numbered and supplied locals.

Supplies: Even if they take Ceres spaceport, how the heck are they expecting to get supplies in there? Huge bulk ships being easily intercepted by small mining pods with lasers and stakes. Heck, stakes retrofitted with mining nukes would make for some nasty anti-ship projectiles. Sure, they can use some local supplies, but eventualy they will run out of ammunition because the local manufacturers of their own caliber will just stop making them, possibly even wrecking the machinery needed. Logistics nightmare anyone? As for brining in more troops and stockpiling before going active, more barraks and storage will from now on will be harder to get as i seriously doubt the people of Cerese will be interested in selling. At least to them.
"Iīm purely a layman, wondering from a laymans point of view."

sams on February 04, 2011, 06:34:32 am
Hmmm. Iīm thinking this might even be more subtle than what you see at first glance. Not your average "occupation" attempt as it were. If it is, someone at HQ is so stupid itīs painfull.

Iīm making the rest of the post in difficult to read colours intentionaly. It might contain spoilers with my musings and ideas, and i canīt find any "spoilers" button in the messages setting. You feel like reading them, just highlight and read. Ainīt i a considerate guy? :)

Your plan is way elaborated, I believe any military commander will stick to the Standard Hitler Plan : Stage an incident, put the opinion in shock and proceed with overweening force to seize whatever you can.

The UW will try to have the Barracks attacked and responded with force to try to establish control ... but if they can manage to to land more shipload of troops, like some 100 000 unopposed then Ceres is over

Brugle on February 04, 2011, 08:00:54 am
Maybe not Mistress at all, ever read Hogan's Voyage From Yesteryear? 
Also great fun.  Not as exciting as Heinlein in my opinion, but what is?

But, but, these guys with rifles, what if they are not what they appear to be? I suppose they are but what if they are deserters, maybe going into business as mercenaries. Did someone hire them somehow? Are they just passing through?
I suspect you are right, that the trouble will be indirect.  Perhaps they will have a quarrel with someone else with the locals caught in the middle.  Or (my current bet) perhaps there will be incidents with the locals and the soldiers won't accept arbitration.

I have to make a spelling correction: the word you want in this context is "populace".
Thank you.  (I do know better.)